Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes in the Ethiopian Fincha Sub-Basin

The increasing human pressure on African regions is recognizable when looking at Land Use Cover (LULC) change maps, generally derived from satellite imagery. Using the Ethiopian Fincha watershed as a case study, present work focuses (i) identifying historical LULC in period 1989–2019; (ii) estimating next thirty years, combining Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with Change Modelling (LCM). Landsat 5/8 images were combined field evidence to map three reference years (1989, 2004, 2019), while Multi-Layer Markov Chain (MPL-MC) model of LCM was applied forecast 2030, 2040, and 2050. classified into six classes: waterbody, grass/swamp, built-up, agriculture; forest; shrub. results have shown that, past 30 experienced reduction forest shrubs about ?40% ?13%, respectively, mainly due ever-increasing agricultural activities, such trend also expected future. In fact, for 2019–2050, simulated significant decrease both (around ?70% ?20%, respectively), favor more areas covered by grass (19%) built-up (20%). It worth noting that natural forests can drive an increase soil erosion, fostering siltation water reservoirs located sub-basin. study pointed out urgency taking actions sub-basin counteract changes, which eventually lead less sustainable environment.